Fantasy Football Labritory

My biggest pet peeve is watching fantasy team owners reach for a player they like, especially a QB. In real life, a QB is the most important player on the field. However in fantasy football, an elite QB is traditionally not worth his ADP.

I have finally figured out the best QB draft strategy. I honestly don’t believe a QB should be drafted before the 11^th round in a traditional 15 round draft. I know what you’re thinking, and no I’m not insane. Before you stop reading, hear me out. Based on ESPN’s QB projections for the 2018 season, the projected point range between QB1 and QB15 is 49.5 points. That boils down to about 3 points per week difference between QB1 and QB15. In the grand scheme of things 3 points is enough to overcome. This point differential can be overcome by stockpiling great players at RB and WR.

In a 10-12 team PPR league (or standard, it’s just more apparent in PPR), value is the most important draft strategy. So when that one guy drafts Aaron Rodgers in the 3^rd round he is doing you a favor. His pick allows you to gain a player with better fantasy value. While Tom Brady is a great statistical QB, his relative Fantasy value is not much higher than say Phillip Rivers. I use these two because they happen to be QB1 and QB15 respectively, according to ESPN projections. Based on projections, Tom Brady will score about 3 more points a week when compared to Phillip Rivers. The biggest difference between the two is their draft values. While Brady will go within the first 5 rounds, Rivers will likely still be available in the 10^th or 11^th round.

The reason value becomes so important, while drafting in the earlier rounds, is the availability of position players. For example the range between RB1 and RB15 is 143.3 points this is why wasting an early round pick for a quarterback could be detrimental to your entire draft. A similar range is true for the wide receivers as well. 93.4 points separate the top 15 projected receivers.

This season is an especially deep year for QBs. There are multiple QBs ranked 10-26 that can win you a fantasy championship. One of my sleeper picks is Derek Carr. Carr is projected the 26^th rated QB. In my mind getting a talented player in Carr who has proven can be a good fantasy QB is a steal as a second QB. He’ll have high upside.

While some team owners are dumb enough to draft a second QB by the end of round 10, most have their head on straight. This means at worst a 11^th round QB will be QB15. At this point there is still very talented QBs available.  To name a few, Mariota, Garoppolo, Goff, Prescott and Carr are all projected 16-26. For me, I’d be ecstatic to grab an extra RB or WR early and to fall back on one of these QBs.

       Strategy Substantiation

Last year I took my first attempt at this draft strategy. It was a 10 team PPR league. In the 11^th round, I selected my first quarterback, Philip Rivers. I then followed up this pick with a defense in the 12^th, a high-risk high reward TE in the 13^th (Tyler Eifert), Andy Dalton in the 14^th, and closed the draft out with a kicker in the 15^th. While I admit Andy Dalton did not pan out, Phillip Rivers ended as QB8. Also since Andy Dalton was expendable, I was able to grab Alex Smith off the waiver wire after week one. Smith finished as QB4. It may have been luck but my patience paid off. Although just wait to hear who else I was able to draft due to holding off on a QB.

Within my first six draft picks, I was able to pick up Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, Tyreek Hill AJ Green, and Doug Baldwin. These players respectively finished RB1, RB4, RB12, WR8, WR10, and WR13. As I’m sure you can imagine I won the league.

Value, value, value. While other we’re picking one, if not two QBs in the first 10 rounds, I was accumulating value players. Patience is a virtue and as you can see it paid off.

Don’t reach for a QB. Let the players come to you. If you see a good QB value in rounds 8-10 pull the trigger if you feel comfortable, but don’t forget there is great value late.

Like I mentioned, this strategy is most useful in a PPR league because of the larger discrepancy in point differentials. For a standard league, it predominately holds true but maybe plan for a round earlier than the 11^th. Also as teams in your league grow to 12 or higher take that into consideration as well, but do not over commit at QB. As for a Superflex, please disregard this article because the value of a QB increases dramatically.

With exception to the Freshman Fifteen (we’ve all been there), a Sophomore Slump is one of the most daunting fears of young NFL players. Many players burst into the league and try not to look back, but for a few, a new found struggle will soon cloud their NFL futures.

While these players are hoping for the best, fantasy owners and worried about whom might next fall victim to the Sophomore Slump. “How might this phenomena ruin my coming fantasy season?” Luckily I have the formula to best survive the Sophomore Sump.

In 2017, rookie running backs performed especially well. Within PPR scoring, four rookie running backs finished in the top 10 (Kamara, Hunt, Fournette and McCaffrey). Also, from the looks of Dalvin Cook before his knee injury, he might have been able to finish amongst his fellow youngsters.

Pass catchers did not have the same success, but were able to still produce a few solid players. As for the Wide Receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp were the only two rookies to finish as a top 25 WRs, landing at 20^th and 25^th respectively. Top picks like Corey Davis, John Ross and Mike Williams were unable to muster any sort of production, with injuries plaguing a majority of their seasons. On the other hand, Tight Ends suffered primarily the same fate as their WR brethren.  The lone bright sport was Evan Engram who placed 5^th among all Tight Ends. George Kittle surprised many finishing 19^th. To round out the group, O.J. Howard and David Njoku disappointed, landing 21^st and 24^th respectively.

From a fantasy perspective relatively few pass catching rookies made a large impact in 2017. Players like JuJu, Kupp and Engram were solid fantasy assets for most of the season but others only had their brief moments. Oddly enough, Christian McCaffrey led all rookies in receptions with 80. He outpaced closest rookie Kupp, who finished with 62 catches.

Other than that, not many other rookies were fantasy relevant. Deshaun Watson was the only real Quarterback that made an impact; although his campaign was sadly cut short after a knee injury of his own. Arguably the only other rookie that made an impact was a kicker Harrison Butker.

The 2017 season has now ended and it is time for these player to put 2017 in the rear view mirror.

       Sophomore Slouches

To preface this section, I want to make it clear that none of these players will fall flat on their faces. They have a large enough role within their respective teams to remain Fantasy relevant. However, remain cautious of their high expectations for 2018.

Kareem Hunt

Casual fantasy players may not have known much about Hunt heading into 2017 fantasy drafts. He made it clear after week 1 that he was going to be a force to be reckoned with. A dual backfield threat made his mark in both the rushing and passing games, headlining a surprise Kansas City offense in 2017.

Obviously Hunt will likely not have the season he had in 2017. This is just because he was so great in 2017. However, in 2018, I see Hunt taking a major regression.

I attribute most of his Sophomore struggles to a wavering offense. At times last year, the Chiefs offense seemed average at best. Others it was the powerhouse they showed week 1 versus the Patriots. Taking into consideration offense changes, I only see their offensive consistently moving backwards. With second year QB Patrick Mahomes now at the helm, Hunt will be leaned on at times. Oddly to me, many are on the Mahomes bandwagon. I am not. He has an electric arm and can make things happen on the ground but has yet to experience any real NFL action. I think year one is too early to expect offensive success. Coupled with the exit of OC Matt Nagy (now HC of the Bears), I do not see smooth offense numbers for any Chief in 2018. Travis Kelce is probably the only Chief I feel confident in. Hunt likely falls outside of the RB10, probably around RB13 or so.

Maybe Mahomes pulls a rabbit out of his hat, but rookie QBs are traditionally conservative or struggle. Inconsistent QB play will not bode well for Hunt.

Leonard Fournette

The LSU alumni was able to surpass the century mark in his first NFL Season. This was quite the accomplishment given he only played in 13 games. Fournette’s greatest fantasy asset is his workload. He carried the ball 20+ times a game on average, ranking him fourth in the NFL in average totes per game.

In year two, his workload does not seem to be in question. However, to me, there are two large questions concerning Fournette.  One is his health. In his three years at LSU, Fournette only averaged 9 games played a year.  With him already missing 3 games in his rookie year, this trend does not seem to favor his fantasy value. I do not expect the Jag’s Sophomore to play all 16 games.

The second concern I have with Fournette is his yards per carry (YPC) average. Totaling 1040 yards on 268 carries, Fournette was only able to muster a 3.88 YPC. Most analysts attribute this to loaded boxes, due to Blake Bortles lack of throwing prowess. While this is partly true, this doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. Furthermore, factor out a single 90 yard TD run, his YPC drops to a pedestrian 3.56 yards per carry.

Be prepared for a RB15 finish for the second year back. We will see if the Jag’s defense can withstand and underperforming QB and RB in the coming year.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster’s rookie campaign was good JuJu.

The USC receiver splashed onto the scene in Pittsburgh when his bicycle was stolen early in the season. This ended up being his lowest point because the rest of his season was relatively smooth riding (pun intended). His breakout year came somewhat unexpectedly. The second best WR in Pittsburgh far passed expectations nearly reaching the century mark with 7 TDs on 58 receptions. The craziest part was that JuJu only played 13 games in 2017.

It is no secret that the Steeler offense has a few weapons. Can JuJu remain one of Big Ben’s favorite targets? I’m not sold on JuJu’s game just yet. Playing across from Antonio Brown can make the most average receivers look good. Let’s not forget Big Ben’s track record with rookie wide-outs. James Washington is a guy to keep an eye on. Washington provides a big play capability voided by the departure of Martavis Bryant. I would expect JuJu to play mostly in the slot, especially after catching the second most balls in the slot in 2017, only trailing Michael Thomas. The Steelers also seem to really like TE Vance McDonald. The guy is wildly inconsistent but seems to be a focal point of the teams 2018 plans.

It is just hard for me to expect JuJu to repeat his rookie success. I expect JuJu to land outside of WR33. Smith-Schuster’s Sophomore season will be bad JuJu.

       Sophomore Studs

Alvin Kamara

Do I really have to justify why Alvin Kamara is a stud? Both he and Mark Ingram finished as top six running backs. While Ingram is suspended for the first few weeks, Kamara will likely carve out the number one back role. Also if 2017 showed us anything, Mark Ingram should not affect Kamara’s fantasy output. Kamara is a playmaker and he will get his, especially in the offense the Saints have.

Dalvin Cook

During his rookie campaign, Cook looked like an elite player. That is until his ACL injury, which sidelined him from week five until the end of the season. At the moment, it seems as if his knee will be ready to go for the full 2018 season.

Cook is going to be the clear number one back for one of the most explosive offenses is in the NFL. While the team did lose OC Pat Shurmur, they were able to replace him with John DeFilippo. DeFilippo was the QB coach for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017. The Vikings, we’re also able to acquire Kirk Cousins. His quarterback play should be a clear upgrade from years past. Couple that with a good defense, the Vikings should be up on the scoreboard a good portion of the time. Leading traditionally means a team will run the ball more. Latavius Murray will probably vulture some of Cook’s carries, especially at the goal line, but Cook will remain the primary workhorse.

Being an explosive runner and pass catcher, Cook is bound for a top 10 season. I have him at RB8 for 2018.

George Kittle

It is not often that I am high on a young TE. In 2017 Kittle was able to log over 550 snaps. The TE was only able to produce 515 yards and 2 TDs over his extended playing time. That was enough to earn Kittle TE19 for his rookie campaign.

The saving grace for Kittle is twofold. Kittle posted two top-7 weeks with Jimmy G at the helm. It is hard to imagine his yardage numbers spiking too high, given TEs traditional don’t reach the century mark often. Realistically, Kittle can add another 150 yards or so in his 2018 season. The biggest difference will be his TD production.  Being the primary past catching option at tight end, expect Kittle to see an uptick in TDs. It would not be unlikely to see his 2017 TD production nearly tripled. Kittle is a TE10.

When preparing for you fantasy football drafts don’t overlook this talented Sophomore class. While players like Kamara are at the top of you boards, keep an eye on guys like a Mike Williams or Corey Davis. Their talent level is undeniable.